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 Merchandise




Fall Back vs Consolidation (Math Puzzle)

Discussion of anything 40K related

Postby killmaimburn » Sun Feb 01, 2009 8:37 am

KInG wrote:obviously being a house husband affords u guys far too much time
Aww don't go there,not today. I've got a right wing nutter who reckons I'm wasting my life raising my children and is so offended by the idea that I might know stuff..He's challenged me to a sword fight today for "being workshy"..I think a rumble cometh.

Gymbols question- (I don't get the answer..not yet)
Well they now just get move through cover (a nerf to carnifexs, meh) so your looking for an either/or event on 3 dice.
I'll cheat a big bit here using the small roller ( http://www.fnordistan.com/smallroller.html )
the chances of one of the 3 dice rolling a 3 or more is 96.3%
the chances of rolling above a 4 is 87%
The chances of rolling above a 5 is 70.37%
6 is 42 %
The chances of rolling exactly a 4 on at least one dice= (note that means stuff that is rolled above it is discounted!!) is 42.13% just like rolling a 6 in the above scenario..because thats the chance that any one face will turn up out of 3 dice.

based on what your looking for being- which dice would you pick and dice probabilities i'd jump out of reason and into total conjecture that it would be 5".. but I don't know which maths to apply to get anything that supports or contradicts that
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World of ME First try at Apoc Batrep WHAT/WHO is AOS?
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Postby AdrianG » Sun Feb 01, 2009 9:18 am

Got to be one of the "saddest" topics I've seen here fora while..
You must have been really bored LMtRK.
:P

Somebody lock this ... please???? :D :D
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Postby LordMalekTheRedKnight » Sun Feb 01, 2009 11:14 am

AdrianG wrote:Got to be one of the "saddest" topics I've seen here fora while..
You must have been really bored LMtRK.
:P

actually, i do this sort of thing for fun... :lol:

AdrianG wrote:Somebody lock this ... please???? :D :D
(semi-joking)

request denied. :twisted:

@ Gymbol:
i just made this for you (and i didnt cheat - i worked out the values myself :P):

Image
(note: it rounds the values - the chance of moving just 1" is actually just under half of 1%, not zero :P)

the average distance moved is 4.96", by my calculations.

or, for example, you could say that there is less than a 1 in 3 chance of failing to move 5" or more.

EDIT: @ KMB:
i just made six 6 x 6 grids, one for each of the values on the 3rd die (so 1-6). the 1st die went across the top and the 2nd die went down the side (so 1-6 by 1-6). for each square in the grid, i cross ref'd the value on the top, the value on the side, and the value for that grid, and picked the highest, putting that in the square.
(note, if i could make spreadsheets in 3D, the 6 grids would have formed the 6 layers of the 6x6x6 cube)
i then counted the number of squares that had each of the 6 different results in them, for each grid (i.e. how many 1's, how many 2's etc) and added them all together for all 6 grids(/layers), to get the totals for each movement distance. this is what i used for my pie chart (mmm pie...).
i then multiplied the number of instances of moving each distance by that distance, and divided by the number of values (6x6x6=216) to get the average move (4.96").

hope that helps :)

~ Tim
p.s. anyone have another one they want tackled? :?:
Last edited by LordMalekTheRedKnight on Sun Feb 01, 2009 11:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby killmaimburn » Sun Feb 01, 2009 11:28 am

Ok so why was I .04 of an inch out..
Which maths did you use did you take the percentages of 'what is = or higher' away from each sequential number set (as you would pick higher but still needed the figures)?
I just couldn't visualise that step.
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World of ME First try at Apoc Batrep WHAT/WHO is AOS?
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Postby LordMalekTheRedKnight » Sun Feb 01, 2009 11:33 am

see my Edit to my last post, mate :)
(i must have been writing it while you posted)

~ Tim
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Postby Gymbol » Sun Feb 01, 2009 3:34 pm

Move through cover offers an expected 5" move, with 6" being really likely.

So, how much movement do you expect using only the 2 dice for normal infantry difficult terrain?

And I know this seems like a ridiculous topic of discussion, but if I'm trying to figure out how far away I need to be this move so I can shoot his genestealers next then expected movement is important.
Last edited by Gymbol on Sun Feb 01, 2009 3:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby LordMalekTheRedKnight » Sun Feb 01, 2009 4:22 pm

Gymbol wrote:So, how much movement do you expect using only the 2 dice for normal infantry difficult terrain?

that one is much easier. :)

the average is 4.47" (so MTC makes about 1/2" difference on average). here's some more pie:

Image

(mmm pie...)

hope that helps :)

~ Tim
p.s. feel free to check my maths, people!
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Postby Gymbol » Mon Feb 02, 2009 12:51 am

I don't get these numbers.

rolling 2 dice, picking the highest, I get the following:
1 2.78% 100.00%
2 8.33% 97.22%
3 13.89% 88.89%
4 19.44% 75.00%
5 25.00% 55.56%
6 30.56% 30.56%

Third column is sum of the chance of moving that far (or further). (So if you are 4" away from the berserkers in cover, you're 75% scr***d.)

Average movement distance is 4.47 inches.

Why do we have different numbers for individual results, but have the same average?

====

ah, nevermind. You just recopied your chart from above.
Last edited by Gymbol on Mon Feb 02, 2009 1:11 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby LordMalekTheRedKnight » Mon Feb 02, 2009 8:14 am

Gymbol wrote:ah, nevermind. You just recopied your chart from above.

no, its a new chart (the %ages for 1", 2" & 6" are different). :?
(although i re-used my "when the 3rd dice is a 1" grid from my MTC calculation)

EDIT: just realised what i had done - looks like i highlighted the wrong collumn when making the chart. :oops: sorry about that (explains why our averages were the same, as my calculations themselves were correct). here is the corrected version:

Image

sorry!

~ Tim
Last edited by LordMalekTheRedKnight on Mon Feb 02, 2009 8:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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