Math-Hammer Question

LordMalekTheRedKnight · by **LordMalekTheRedKnight** » Thu Nov 29, 2007 10:39 pm

Hey all

got a little math-hammer problem for you here - i want you to have a go at it and see if you get the same answer i did (partially for fun and partially to check my answer).

heres the firing squad:
- Farseer: Shuriken Pistol, Singing Spear, Doom, Guide, Spirit Stones
- Dire Avenger Exarch: 2 Shuriken Catapults, Bladestorm
- 9 Dire Avengers: Avenger Shuriken Catapults

the target is 10 Space Marines without any upgrades.

assume the Farseer successfully cast Guide on his squad and Doom on the target. also assume that the Exarch uses Bladestorm in the same turn.

calculate the average number of kills scored (assuming all models have range and LOS to the entire enemy unit, and the Farseer uses his Singing Spear), giving answers to 1 decimal place.

once i get a few replies il post what i got.

cheers

~ Tim

Culven · by **Culven** » Sat Dec 01, 2007 12:58 am

Assuming that I didn't mess up the maths (due to hunger. Culven want food!) or some other bit that I missed in the Eldar rules...

8.7 dead Marines.

I can show my work if need be, but right now food is more important.

LordMalekTheRedKnight · by **LordMalekTheRedKnight** » Sat Dec 01, 2007 1:02 am

cheers mate

Culven wrote:8.7 dead Marines.

oooh... i didnt get that many.

il re-check my maths tomorrow (tried simplifying my fractions just for fun, not done that for ages, so i could have slipped up somewhere).

anyone else want to have a go too?

~ Tim

Culven · by **Culven** » Sat Dec 01, 2007 1:07 am

LordMalekTheRedKnight wrote:oooh... i didnt get that many.

il re-check my maths tomorrow (tried simplifying my fractions just for fun, not done that for ages, so i could have slipped up somewhere).

As could I. I will also rerun my numbers later. I just want to make sure there isn't something sneaky about the units or upgrades that you chose that would make things a little tricky.

LordMalekTheRedKnight · by **LordMalekTheRedKnight** » Sat Dec 01, 2007 1:40 am

Culven wrote:As could I. I will also rerun my numbers later. I just want to make sure there isn't something sneaky about the units or upgrades that you chose that would make things a little tricky.

nothing "sneeky" per-se (its not a trick question or anything).

the Farseer doesnt benefit from Bladestorm, but as he is throwing his spear (instead of shooting a Shuriken weapon) that doesnt make a difference in this example - everyone else gets the extra shot. everyone benefits from re-rolls to hit and to-wound, but Power Armour cuts down a big proportion of the wounds.

its gone 1:30 AM here, time for bed. il check back in the morning (and double check my maths).

g'night and cheers

~ Tim

Culven · by **Culven** » Sat Dec 01, 2007 3:29 am

OK, I knew I messed it up. However, after some food and running the calcs three times:

:evil5

7.5 dead marines.

EDIT: I just ran some experimental trials with physical dice. Five trials for Dire Avengers, ten trials for the Exarch, and twenty for the Farseer. The multiple trials for the Exarch and Farseer were to reduce the influence of random results from a smaller dice pool. My average result was 7.55 dead marines.

killmaimburn · by **killmaimburn** » Sat Dec 01, 2007 9:14 am

LordMalekTheRedKnight wrote:anyone else want to have a go too?

I doubt that my math hammer and others math hammers would gell at all (not because I'm a super algebratic ninja fiend such as nurg... or nik, but because I have had to reapportion my entire sliding scale for probability so that maths works (to balance the equations so that they work better) So on a basic scale of 6 marines are hit by 6 bolter shots I could show you a large % of the time a positively wrong result.
Taken from warseer on tactica: dice (which isn't very good)

Killmaimburn wrote:
PseudoK wrote:Play your normal army and record (meticulously - say, with a video camera!) all of your rolls. Grab a statistics book, then see how far off of normal you are.

The local shop owner recently recorded his armor saves one game, and found that he made almost exactly 2/3s of them (1kSons,) despite having a reputation as the second worst roller in the area.

I posit a law for 40k luck: mathematically observing a player with terrible or amazing luck tends to make them roll average.

I have done the above, since july (as some warseers have read bits and bobs of my batreps and heard my moaning know) the chances of me rolling 9x1s out of 11 dice became so frequent we didn't note those 'anomalies' any more, what I did do was alter my apporach to probability, my freak unluck zone- taking that into account I was able to predict game much more accurately than if I assumed the chances of getting a 1 were 1 in6. Now I work on the principle that the chances of me getting a 1 or a 2 are 2/3rd likely to happen. Opponents are amazed when I can tell exactly how many of mine are going to die based on this very wrong maths (its proven an accurate predictor for the 7 of my last 9 games). It also means if I get super lucky with one roll (roll what other people consider a normal pattern of dice) I am much happier than them, to me a getting all 3s is like the rending god coming down and annointing my dice.(meaning my mood as a gamer is better, it also means that I play more defensively and only need poor to average luck to win)

As others have pointed out there are ways to reduce the impact of dice.Bits and bobs exist in every codex for those damned by their dice. Improved comms, combi bolters, holofields etc. (edit your guard- sharpshooters )

It should be noted that though I only need poor to average luck, my luck is still less than that :lol:

LordMalekTheRedKnight · by **LordMalekTheRedKnight** » Sun Dec 02, 2007 9:43 pm

cheers guys.

@ Culven: yes, i got 7.5 dead Marines too when i ran the numbers (and when i just rechecked with a calculator).

not as many as i thought (re-rolling to hit and to-wound with good BS and S sounds good, but Power Armour takes a big chunk away from your killing power when you dont bypass it) but still rather respectable.

thanks - i really just wanted to check my numbers (and give you guys a chance to have a go too).

if i think of any others i will add them to the thread - same goes for anyone else, if you want to quiz us or check your working etc, feel free to post a mathhammer problem in this thread.

thanks again,

~ Tim
p.s. glad to see your dice worked out quite so close for you, mate.