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Disturbing math facts.

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Disturbing math facts.

Postby Murphey » Wed Apr 15, 2009 9:52 pm

Heyo,

Here's some pretty unsettling math facts regarding how resistant to damage vehicles are in 5th.

The chances of a lascannon (at BS3) has of killing a:

Eldar Skimmer w/ Holofields in cover: 1.04% (meaning you will have to shoot an average of 97 lascannon shots to kill one eldar skimmer)

Eldar Skimmer w/ Holofields in hard cover: 0.69% (An average of 145 lascannon shots to kill it in this scenario)

Lemun Russ w/ Camo Netting: 0.926% (An average of 108 lascannon shots here)

Basalisk w/ Camo Netting: 2.77% (An average of 36)

Rhino in cover: 5.5% (A little over 18 shots here)

Well, we can safely say that vehicles are now the most survivable thing in the game, since even invuln save units will die under 145 lascannon shots, not to mention that vehicles are immune to all small arms fire.

Just... Yeah.

~Murphey
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Postby Gymbol » Wed Apr 15, 2009 10:01 pm

Don't your chances of a kill improve with every additional shot you take? I.E. stacking weapon losses & Immobilized results? Because this CERTAINLY isn't the results experienced by MY vehicles, even with Fortune allowing rerolls for cover saves.
Last edited by Gymbol on Wed Apr 15, 2009 10:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Murphey » Wed Apr 15, 2009 10:13 pm

It does improve the chances somewhat, but not a significant amount. Especially when you consider that many vehicles have a self fix option, like a techpriest, mekboy, etc. Or, the fact that eldar holo field make the chances of getting weapon destroyed/immobolized very low, especially on glancing hits.

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Postby LordMalekTheRedKnight » Wed Apr 15, 2009 11:51 pm

Something to remember now is that while Vehicles are harder to kill at range, they are easier to kill in CC, due to:
- hitting Rear AV
- units coming with 'free' Kraks
- not needing 6's to hit Skimmers anymore
- SMF not helping in CC
- Run Moves make it easier to close the gap

You dont necessarily need to destroy a Vehicle outright with shooting - quite often you just need to stop it moving/shooting long enough for you kill it in combat.

that said, the numbers are quite interesting...

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Postby Ljundhammer » Thu Apr 16, 2009 7:35 am

Lascannons are bunk. They appear to have been overcosted by GW in recent codexes to put an end to the old las/plas spam. But at the same time GW changed the game monumentally by increasing vehicle survivability.

The new meta-game is multi-meltas, or specifically, fast multi-meltas. If you pack 2-3 of these in your army, tanks don't worry you. Back up with mobile melta guns (now that mech is viable & plasma is dethroned) means that most tanks shouldn't worry you.

Also consider the LM has the right idea. Killing tanks is not the be-all and end-all of disabling tanks. Stopping them shooting is generally priority 1 (unless it's a transport), then stopping it moving, then destroying it.

When it comes to tanks 5th ed is a fundamentally different game in that you cant't rely on killing tanks, you need to make them ineffective. AV14 is the key, hence the melta-weaponry. AV13 is difficult to 'take out' (by which I mean disable for a turn at least), but significantly easier than AV14. AV12 is getting to the realms where anti-personel weapons have a chance. There is a massive gulf between AV13 & AV12 in terms of what can affect it & survivability.

That said, your math has reenforced why I don't take lascannons any more! Cheers :)
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Postby killmaimburn » Thu Apr 16, 2009 9:00 am

Not too disturbing..I've been playing against Ljundhammers dual landraider deathwing for most of the last year (with the downgrade shots + obscured DA stack).. if I don't have at least (MEQ) 5 lascannons and 3 attack multi meltas i pretty much declare turn 1.
Tanks are harder in 5th.
Av14 all round is the only thing I really worry about.. theres a bat rep around here where I beat 3 leman russes with my standard (500)combat patrol list.
But as long as you don't have to split your dedicated anti tank fire..say to a load of 2+ saves.. then you ought to field lists with enough guns to take most stuff out if need be.

I'd like to see your working out ;)
Whats the chance of 1 lascannon taking out the front of a battle wagon that has a kustom force field around it.. (thats what every body in the world of compeitive is using at the moment) ..if you do the longer maths it has 2 additional bought weapons and the mek is inside (since they can fix stuff being inside)
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Postby Murphey » Thu Apr 16, 2009 10:32 am

That's easy enough.

Assume BS of 3:

Chance to hit, 50% (henceforth displayed as a decimal notation)

So .5 to hit.

Then, you have a 1 in 6 chance to penetrate (since glancing cannot kill it, and the mekboy makes glancing moot anyhow)

So .5 * .16666 = .083333 (8.3% chance of a penetrating hit so far)

Then, we have the vehicle damage table. Since we know that 1-4 are not going to do anything lasting, since there are grot riggers and mekboys here, and killing a big shoota doesent do you squat. Which leaves us with only 5-6 that will kill the vehicle, so a 33% chance per penetrating hit that the vehicle is destroyed.

So, .083333 * .33333 = .02777 (2.777 percent chance of killing the wagon, before cover save)

So now we gotta factor in the force field, which gives us a 50% chance of ignoring any shot.

So, .02777 * .5 = 1.388 (a 1.388% chance)

So, when all is said and done, you only have a 1.388% chance of killing a battlewagon per lascannon shot. Which means, you need to fire an average of 73 lascannon shots at one before you will destroy it.

Now, if one looks at the average army, which has maybe 6 lascannons max, that means that you will have to fire every lascannon at that wagon, for over 12 turns (two or more games) before you will actually destroy one.

Seriously, is there no one at GW that can do math? I could have told them that all the vehicle buffs were a bad, bad idea.

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Postby killmaimburn » Thu Apr 16, 2009 10:40 am

Murphey wrote:Now, if one looks at the average army, which has maybe 6 lascannons max,
Thats too little anti tank :D
I guess I must field an inordinant amount of anti tank.. LH says I'd have pillaged at the GT. But really you want to be able to say big things are either dead or irrelevant by the end of the first turn. My normal (BS4) lists have around 9-11 str 8 or above weapons (inc ordinance) a couple of my lists (that focus on first turn getting rid of stuff and then becoming more moderate.. pump out 18 str 8 or above (some are twinlinked) and 6 str 7 shots turn one.
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Postby Murphey » Thu Apr 16, 2009 10:43 am

Remember that str 8 cannot ever kill a battlewagon by front armor with a mekboy. So how many str 9+ weapons do you have in your army?

Bear in mind, My secondary army is Tau, they cannot melee back armor, and they do not have multi-meltas. They have no recourse to compensate for the tank survivability.

~Murphey

Edit: I'm gonna be going to bed here shortly, but i'd like to point out the utter stupidity of a weapon (lascannon) that is designed to kill tanks by the fluff, having a less than 2% chance of killing many/most of the tanks in the game.
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Postby killmaimburn » Thu Apr 16, 2009 10:52 am

Murphey wrote:Remember that str 8 cannot ever kill a battlewagon by front armor with a mekboy. So how many str 9+ weapons do you have in your army?
As mentinoed above if i take 15 rolls on the table the mek will be irrelevant.. I know its optimism but meh :D
Murphey wrote:Bear in mind, My secondary army is Tau, they cannot melee back armor, and they do not have multi-meltas. They have no recourse to compensate for the tank survivability.
I must admit most of the tua players have vanished from around here and went on to armies that win more.. but don't you have melta jump suits and st10 guns with a range that keeps them relatively safe?

yes too much 5 man las plas meant that GW made it a crappy choice.. use it to take down av12, and take dedicated ( :D as in the new) anti tank
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Postby Murphey » Thu Apr 16, 2009 11:01 am

Understand that the railguns have a very low chance of killing an armor 14 tank as it stands (I could show you the math, but I'm gonna be going to sleep soon. I'm sure you guys could calculate it at home) It's really not generous.

As far as meltas on jump suits, you have to be within 6" for that to function. Jet packs can move 6", fire, then move another 6". You will never catch an eldar skimmer or fast vehicle with this. In fact, most vehicles can simply keep away from you.

Secondly, you are running at the enemy with Tau, which every other army in the game has better CC than you. Necrons, IG, anyone will kill you in CC. So getting that close in extremely suicidal.

Thirdly, Tau have a BS of 3 on their suits, and a LD of 8. This means that not only will you be very unlikely to land a shot and kill the enemy, the enemy could even tank shock you, and have a very good chance of you failing and flying 3d6 inches off the board. (since you cannot Death or glory if you fail your moral check)

Ok, going to sleep. Night all.

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Postby Daz » Thu Apr 16, 2009 1:06 pm

I am currently selling my Tau, due to the fact that I find them a very hard army to use effectively.

Rail Guns are now useless against vehicles (in 4th about half the vehicles I shot I would destroy, following up on the next turn wiping them out). Now though against the same army I didn't destroy 1 until the 3 turn - this is based on my friends Ork army, & he takes mainly dreadnoughts & killa kans! 8O

Again there fusion guns you NEED to get very close to use them, too close though & your dead (especially with ork players gaining running & fleet, effectively). Its the same with most of there other weapons which are close ranged affairs (again stupid considering Tau + CC = DEAD) :lol:

Every battle I used the Tau, if ONE enemy model got in combat, a unit of 12 fire warriors couldn't take it down (that was with marines & couldn't) - Ha ha, I once had my whole battle line (2k army) blast a unit of BA Death company, 2 got in combat with a unit & wiped them out, next turn they got shot & survived - then they went onto another unit etc... :oops:

I Love the idea of the Tau, but I really don't understand why they don't have a better BS, considering they are an all shooty army... :roll:

Ahh well, hopefully they will get better whenever a new codex comes out! :P
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Postby killmaimburn » Thu Apr 16, 2009 1:17 pm

Our in house tau player started selling up when I used torrent of fire to remove his unit that had a shield controller in it.. yum.. he's since changed to armies I can't beat. :D
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Postby Daz » Thu Apr 16, 2009 1:30 pm

Ha ha yeah, another pointless aspect of Tau - shield drones. I mean, now that equal shots at a unit hits each model once, those characters don't really benefit from the little buggers save do they?! Why they don't just give the character a 4+ inv' save is beyond me! :lol: Silly...

Still your right Murphey, why they don't do the maths before hand is a cause for concern 8O
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Postby LordMalekTheRedKnight » Thu Apr 16, 2009 1:38 pm

Well if a lone IC has 2 Shield drones, then you need to do 3 wounds on the unit to put one on the IC (who has multiple wounds), and only 1/3 of the wounds go on the IC (so you need to do 9 wounds to kill a 3W IC, and thats assuming all saves are failed!). Surely that is better than him taking all the saves himself?

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